5 things to consider for Kerrville heading into 2021

The Kerrville City Council faces a series of challenging economic development questions in 2021. 

THE TRUE COST OF THE PANDEMIC

As of this writing, there have been more than 2,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Kerr County — although the number is probably far greater — and what makes this challenging is assessing the lost productivity from those infections. How much does that hurt? Those are questions that won't be answered right away, but it's could be expected that the pandemic has cost local businesses millions in lost productivity and revenue. 

Consider these numbers: 

• Of those infected in Texas, according to the Department of State Health Services, 76% have been in the 20-59-year-old demographic. 
• If that trend is representative in Kerr County that means more than 1,500 people have been infected in that age demographic. In turn, that means that those people have been taken out of the workforce at some point during the pandemic. Let's say that 1,000 of them are working full time and you start to see the lost days of work building up, and not everyone is sure how those absences will be paid for. Some will be a combination of sick leave, vacation or the employer may cover that time off. 

Then there's the cost to local businesses. While Kerrville has reported better than expected sales tax revenue, there are areas in the reporting that present some concerns — especially with locally-owned restaurants, which may be experiencing softening sales as the pandemic intensified in December. 

THE TRUE DEATH TOLL

Once again as we write this, the number of dead from COVID-19 is about 59 people and we say that because not every agency reports its data the same way. That estimated count is from nursing homes, assisted living centers, the Veterans Affairs hospital in Kerrville and the Kerrville State Hospital. However, much of this data is delayed by two weeks and in the case of the VA, The Kerrville Daily Times had to file a Freedom of Information Act request to get it. 

By the middle of January, the number of lives claimed by the virus in 2020 should come into greater focus. Without question, COVID-19 will be one of the leading causes of death in Kerr County in 2020. 

HOUSING IN KERRVILLE

Kerrville had plenty to celebrate in 2020 with solid economic news, in spite of the pandemic, but the affordable housing crunch has been a thorn in the side of those looking to relocate here. The good news is new apartment inventory will be coming online in the weeks to come — led by the MacDonald's Landing project along the south bank of the Guadalupe River and Nimitz Lake. 

However, when it comes to homes priced between $150,000 to $250,000 there just isn't much available. A peek at the Christmas Eve listings finds that there are just 31 single-family homes in that price range. Most are small and older homes. 

So, the proposed project with Lennar at the corner of Loop 534 and Olympic Drive becomes all the more important, but it could be 2022 before homes are ready to be occupied. The big question will what other projects might come to Kerr County in the coming months? After the collapse of Vintage Heights, is major homebuilder D.R. Horton still looking around Kerrville? Will another production builder come into the market? 

A DOWNTOWN HOTEL IN KERRVILLE

The Kerrville City Council is still wrestling with incentives requested by the developer of the long-proposed Marriott SpringHill Suites at the corner of Spring and Water streets downtown. Originally, the developer was going to get about $150,000 in tax rebates to build the hotel, but the pandemic has changed the economics of the hospitality industry. 

As we mentioned, Kerrville has weathered the storm economically better than others but the area's hotels were hit hard by the shutdown, and hotel chains are re-thinking their strategies when it comes to how they serve customers in the post-pandemic world. 

Hospitality analyst STR wrote this week that occupancy rates are down 26% from a year ago — during the second week of December — and that the hotel industry has had one billion unsold room nights for the first time ever — just in the United States. 

The American Hospitality and Lodging Association completed a survey of its members and found the following results: 

• More than 2/3 of hotels (71%) report that they will only be able to last six more months at current projected revenue and occupancy levels absent any further relief, with one-third (34%) saying they can only last between one to three more months
• 63% of hotels have less than half of their typical, pre-crisis staff working full time
• 82% of hotel owners say they have been unable to obtain additional debt relief, such as forbearance, from their lenders beyond the end of this year
• 59% of hotel owners said that they are in danger of foreclosure by their commercial real estate debt lenders due to COVID-19, a 10% increase since September
• 52% of respondents stated their hotel(s) will close without additional aid
• 98% of hoteliers would apply for and utilize a second draw Paycheck Protection Program loan

So, you can see the challenges ahead when it comes to financing and building a hotel in the post-pandemic economy. 

LEADERSHIP CHANGES

One of the big questions about 2021 will be the relationship between the Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha and new Kerrville Police Chief Chris McCall because that's a relationship that needs to be symbiotic. The two men have deep experience in law enforcement and both bring strong organizational ideas from outside agencies. For Leitha, it's years of work with the Department of Public Safety, and for McCall, it's years leading a department that's roughly the same size as the sheriff's department when he was a police chief in New Mexico. The two men start at the same time and it will be interesting to see how they work together to solve some of the area's law enforcement challenges, including staffing and retaining officers and deputies.